Theory of Change

Vision / Long-Term Impact

Kairos Housing envisions a future where asylum seekers and refugees in Blackburn with Darwen are free from homelessness and destitution, living stable, integrated, and self-sufficient lives, with fair access to justice and the opportunity to reach their full potential.

Problem Statement (The 'Why')

People seeking sanctuary in the UK face significant challenges, often leading to severe hardship and destitution:

• Asylum Seekers with No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF): Individuals whose asylum claims have been refused but are working towards a fresh application are left without mainstream support, making them highly vulnerable to homelessness, destitution, and declining mental and physical health. They cannot effectively pursue their legal cases or rebuild their lives without basic stability.
• Newly Recognised Refugees: Despite gaining status, many refugees face homelessness during the critical "move-on" period due to difficulties understanding their rights, accessing benefits, securing long-term housing, and navigating language barriers, mental health challenges, or limited support networks.
• Systemic Injustice: People seeking sanctuary often face unjust treatment and lack fair access to justice, exacerbating their vulnerability.

Our Core Activities (The 'What We Do')

Kairos Housing provides targeted support through the following key activities:

Provision of safe accommodation:

• For asylum seekers with NRPF: free, safe temporary accommodation.
• For newly recognised refugees: supported temporary accommodation during the move-on period.

Essential Material Support:

• For asylum seekers with NRPF: Small weekly support payments and essential living supplies (via donations in kind).

Holistic support & signposting:

• Help guests understand their rights.
• Signpost all guests to appropriate local services including healthcare and community services
• Support asylum seeker guests to access and engage with legal support for asylum cases.
• Ensure asylum-seeking guests stay on track with their asylum case.
• Help newly recognised refugees access benefits.
• Help newly recognised refugees secure long-term housing.

Advocacy for Justice:

• Shine a light on injustice and fight for change where people seeking sanctuary are treated unfairly.

Pathways of Change (The 'How')

Kairos Housing's interventions are designed to create a clear pathway from destitution to stability and integration.

Pathway 1: For Asylum Seekers with No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF)

If Kairos Housing provides free, safe temporary accommodation, a small weekly support payment, and essential living supplies,
Then asylum-seeking guests will have their basic needs for safety, shelter, and sustenance met. (Short-Term Outcome)

If their basic needs are met and Kairos Housing helps them access legal support and stay on track with their asylum case,
Then guests will be empowered to effectively pursue a fresh asylum application and work towards achieving Section 4 support from the Home Office. (Intermediate Outcome)

If guests achieve Section 4 status and/or a positive asylum decision,
Then they will move out of destitution, gain access to mainstream housing and financial support, and be able to begin rebuilding their lives with stability. (Contribution to Long-Term Impact)

Pathway 2: For Newly Recognised Refugees Facing Homelessness

If Kairos Housing provides supported temporary accommodation during the move-on period,
Then newly recognised refugees will have immediate shelter and a stable base. (Short-Term Outcome)

If Kairos Housing helps them understand their rights, access benefits, and secure long-term housing, while also signposting to relevant local services (e.g., for language, mental health),
Then refugees will successfully transition from temporary accommodation, secure stable long-term housing, and access the necessary support to navigate life in the UK. (Intermediate Outcome)

If refugees secure long-term housing and access critical support networks,
Then they will be able to thrive, integrate into the community, and build a sustainable future in the UK. (Contribution to Long-Term Impact)

Key Assumptions: 

The success of Kairos Housing's Theory of Change relies on the following assumptions:

• Maslow's Hierarchy: Meeting basic needs (safety, stability, belonging) is foundational for individuals to address higher-level challenges (legal, integration, self-actualisation).
• Engagement & Agency: Guests are willing and able to engage with the support offered (legal, housing, community services).
• Availability of Services: Appropriate legal aid, healthcare, and community services are available and accessible in Blackburn with Darwen and are responsive to the needs of asylum seekers and refugees.
• Legal System Functionality: The asylum system allows for fresh applications, and there is a pathway to Section 4 support or refugee status for those who qualify.
• Housing Market: There is suitable and affordable long-term housing available for refugees to move into.
• Community Support: The local community is welcoming and supportive, facilitating integration and belonging.
• Policy Context: The broader immigration policy environment does not become so restrictive as to negate the impact of direct support.

Ethos & Values (Guiding Principles)

Kairos Housing's ethos and values (Christ-centred, Excellence, Empowering others, Restless for justice, Servant-hearted, Generous) underpin all activities and interactions, ensuring that support is delivered with love, compassion, integrity and a commitment to dignity and justice. These values foster trust and create a supportive environment essential for guests' progress.

Indicators

To measure progress and assess the effectiveness of our Theory of Change, Kairos Housing will track the following indicators:

Output Indicators (Measuring Activities)

• Number of asylum seekers with NRPF provided with accommodation.
• Number of newly recognised refugees provided with accommodation during the move-on period.
• Number of weekly support payments disbursed.
• Value/quantity of essential living supplies distributed.
• Number of referrals made to legal support for asylum cases.
• Number of referrals made to healthcare and community services.
• Number of asylum-seeking guests maintaining engagement with their asylum case.
• Number of newly recognised refugees receiving support to understand rights/access benefits.
• Number of newly recognised refugees receiving support to secure long-term housing.
• Number of advocacy actions undertaken (e.g., policy submissions, awareness campaigns).

Outcome Indicators (Measuring Changes)

Short-Term Outcomes:

• Percentage of guests reporting feeling safe and secure in their accommodation.
• Percentage of guests reporting improved access to basic necessities.
• Percentage of guests reporting increased stability in their daily lives.

Intermediate Outcomes:

For Asylum Seekers (Pathway 1):

• Percentage of asylum-seeking guests who successfully submit a fresh asylum application.
• Percentage of asylum-seeking guests who achieve Section 4 support.
• Percentage of asylum-seeking guests who receive a positive asylum decision.
• Percentage of guests reporting improved access to legal advice.

For Newly Recognised Refugees (Pathway 2):

• Percentage of newly recognised refugees who successfully access appropriate benefits.
• Percentage of newly recognised refugees who secure long-term housing within a year.

For All Guests:

• Percentage of guests reporting improved understanding of their rights in the UK.
• Percentage of guests reporting successful engagement with local services (e.g., language classes, mental health support).

Long-Term Impact Indicators (Measuring Vision)

• Percentage of former guests reporting long-term housing stability (e.g., still in secure housing 12 months after leaving Kairos).
• Percentage of former guests reporting self-sufficiency (e.g., employment, independent living)
• Evidence of increased integration into the community (e.g., participation in community activities, reduced social isolation).
• Qualitative data on guests' sense of hope, dignity, and ability to rebuild their lives (Case Studies/Testimonials).
• Evidence of systemic changes in policy or practice affecting people seeking sanctuary in Blackburn with Darwen.

Monitoring & Evaluation Plan

Kairos Housing will implement a robust monitoring and evaluation framework to regularly assess the effectiveness of its programs and make data-driven adjustments.

Data Collection:

• Regular Check-ins: Structured interviews including Integration Star completed with guests upon arrival, at key milestones (e.g., legal application submission, housing move-on), and upon exit.
• Case Management Records: Detailed records of support provided, referrals made and progress on asylum cases/housing applications.
• Financial Records: Tracking of support payments and donations in kind.
• Partnership Feedback: Regular communication with legal aid providers, healthcare services and housing associations to track guest engagement and outcomes.
• Advocacy Tracking: Documentation of advocacy efforts and policy changes.

Data Analysis:

• Quantitative data will be regularly compiled and analyzed to track indicator progress against targets.
• Qualitative data (guest stories, feedback) will be analyzed to understand the nuances of impact and identify areas for improvement.

Reporting & Learning:

• Quarterly Reviews: Internal team meetings to review data, discuss challenges and adapt strategies.
• Annual Impact Report: Comprehensive report sharing findings with stakeholders, funders and the wider community.
• Guest Feedback Mechanisms: Regular opportunities for guests to provide anonymous feedback on services.
• External Evaluation: Periodically engaging independent evaluators to conduct deeper assessments of impact and organisational effectiveness.

External Factors / Risks

Several external factors and risks could influence the achievement of Kairos Housing's desired outcomes:

• Changes in Immigration Policy: Restrictive government policies regarding asylum claims, NRPF status, or access to benefits could significantly hinder guests' pathways to stability and justice.
• Funding Fluctuations: Reliance on donations and grants means that changes in funding availability could impact the scale and scope of services provided.
• Availability of Legal Aid: Cuts to legal aid or a shortage of pro bono legal support could limit guests' ability to pursue their asylum cases effectively.
• Housing Crisis: A severe shortage of affordable and appropriate housing in Blackburn with Darwen and the UK as a whole could make it difficult for refugees to secure long-term accommodation, even with support.
• Community Capacity: Overstretched local services (healthcare, mental health, language support) may limit the ability of guests to access timely and adequate support.
• Public Opinion & Hostility: Negative public sentiment towards asylum seekers and refugees could create barriers to integration and community support.
• Individual Circumstances: Guests may face complex personal challenges (e.g., severe trauma, health issues, family separation) that require more intensive or specialised support than Kairos Housing can provide.
• Volunteer & Staff Recruitment/Retention: Difficulty in recruiting and retaining dedicated volunteers and staff could impact service delivery.
• Economic Downturn: An economic recession could reduce charitable giving and increase competition for scarce resources. 
• Communication: Once guests have moved on from our accommodation we are reliant on them choosing to stay in touch and provide information about their long term outcomes.